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Title : "How much political damage did Trump actually do to himself?"
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"How much political damage did Trump actually do to himself?"

Asks John Cassidy in "How Much Damage Are the January 6th Hearings Doing to Trump? Even as Republican support for another Trump Presidential bid appears to be slipping, he can’t be counted out" (The New Yorker).

As you can guess from the concession in the title — "he can't be counted out" — the answer to the question is not much:

[T]he televised hearings... have certainly had some impact, surveys show....

[T]he polling data, on closer inspection, confirm that Trump and his twisted views retain a disturbing amount of support.... [M]ore than half of Republicans still believe the 2020 election was stolen. According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, which combines the results of individual surveys, Trump’s over-all favorability rating has only dropped about two percentage points since this summer’s televised hearings began.... [T]he figure remains within the same narrow range where it resided during most of Trump’s Presidency.... 

As for the 2024 general election, a number of surveys carried out this month have shown a putative Trump-Biden rematch falling within the margin of error. A new Emerson College poll, which came out on Friday, has Trump at forty-six per cent and Biden at forty-three per cent.... 

Cassidy puzzles over Trump's support and doesn't really have any method of gathering evidence:

... Trump still has his maga movement—part nativist revival, part personality cult—and the vast majority of elected Republicans are still too frightened of him and his followers to cross him publicly. 

Last weekend, I took a long drive through upstate New York and northeastern Pennsylvania, and it was easy to see where this fear comes from. The small towns and back roads were festooned with “Trump 2020” signs that had the last zero covered over and replaced with a “4.” Other signs said “Don’t Blame Me, I Voted for Trump.”...

Did he stop and talk to the people or just read the signs? How does he know the Trump supporters are nativists and personality cultists? He also purports to know that Trump was lying when he said he thought the election was stolen. How does he know all this? 

Notice how little distance he got away from New York City — "upstate New York and northeastern Pennsylvania." 

He doesn't consider that the reason opinion hasn't changed may be because the Committee's one-sidedness and unfairness repelled Trump supporters from the start. Repelled others too. Repelled me, and I have never been a Trump supporter. I read the write-ups, but mainly to see if they've made any headway showing that Trump knew he had lost the election and thought he was fomenting an insurrection.

I think the answer is no. Did I miss something?

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