Title : What's My Prediction For This Tuesday's U.S. Midterm Elections
link : What's My Prediction For This Tuesday's U.S. Midterm Elections
What's My Prediction For This Tuesday's U.S. Midterm Elections
WNU Editor: I do not live in the U.S. .... but I do follow the news closely. So my view is that of an outsider who wants to understand what is happening politically in the U.S.. And while I do have my own biases and preferences .... I am also someone who wants to know who will be in charge of the new Congress in January. So here is my analysis and predictions.
First things first .... the conventional wisdom from the media is that the Democrats are going to win big in this election cycle .... Cook Political Report outlook: Democrats gain 30-40 seats in House, up from 25-35 (Washington Examiner). Political campaign contributions .... a usual sign on who people with money are betting on .... are also heavily favoring the Democrats .... Wall Street's campaign contributions are flowing mostly to Democrats (CBS). There is also the historical aspect of mid-term elections where the President's Party is expected to lose a number of seats, and coupled this with many Republican incumbents deciding to not run .... the future does not look good for the GOP. I should also add the role that the main stream media is playing, which at the moment is overwhelmingly negative on the Republican Party.
But while many are predicting a Democrat blue wave, I am seeing news reports that are contradicting this narrative. Case in point .... for as long as I can remember it has always been conventional wisdom that early voting favors Democrats. But that is not happening now.. I am also checking the crowds that show up for the rallies .... and that has been quite an eye-opener. President Trump has tens of thousands showing up .... Democrat leaders like former President Obama and former Vice President Biden have crowds that can only fill up small high-school auditoriums. Then there are the issues .... but with a booming economy, record low jobless numbers, and a migrant crisis that many Americans do believe is real, the Democrat message is being ignored with the exception of one, and that is to get President Trump .... Don’t fall for Pelosi’s claims of civility: Democrats will be ruthless if they take power (Spectator). Is this a winning issue for the Democrats? Democrat progressives clearly want this to happen and it is galvanizing them to go to the polls, but do a majority of Americans want this? Is this what blue-collar Democrats want? I do not think so, but we shall see this Tuesday. As for my prediction. Significant Republican gains in the Senate, and little if any change in the House.
I will be posting a final analysis on election day.
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