Title : "Forget Britain’s vote for Brexit. Forget President Trump’s November win. If Marine Le Pen somehow defeats Emmanuel Macron in France’s presidential runoff vote on Sunday..."
link : "Forget Britain’s vote for Brexit. Forget President Trump’s November win. If Marine Le Pen somehow defeats Emmanuel Macron in France’s presidential runoff vote on Sunday..."
"Forget Britain’s vote for Brexit. Forget President Trump’s November win. If Marine Le Pen somehow defeats Emmanuel Macron in France’s presidential runoff vote on Sunday..."
"... it may be the biggest electoral shock in the West so far this century" (WaPo).A Le Pen victory “means the collapse of the E.U., because the E.U. without France doesn’t make any sense,” Gerard Araud, France’s ambassador in Washington, said in a conversation with Today’s WorldView earlier this year. “And it means the collapse of the euro and a financial crisis, which will have consequences throughout the world.”I don't know how the shock-o-meter works or whether it matters, but I can see that there are 2 kinds of shock: 1. The shock of surprise when something you believed was very unlikely happens, 2. The shock at the extent of the impact of the event.
Araud's quote points up Type 2 Shock. But the "biggest electoral shock" characterization applies even more to Type 1 shock, since Macron is 20 points ahead in the polls. But:
Reports suggest that many disaffected French voters across the political spectrum may abstain. Those voters already rejected France’s traditional conservative and center-left parties amid a tidal wave of public dissatisfaction. Macron’s boosters see his independent movement — known by its slogan “En Marche,” or “Onward” — as an opportunity to rejuvenate the country with a new “radical centrism.” His critics, principally Le Pen, but also some on the left, cast the former banker as an out-of-touch member of the financial elite beholden to tired neo-liberal dogma....Now, a really weird thing that happened is Barack Obama endorsed Macron!
A poll this week found that some 65 percent of [those who voted for the leftist Mélenchon in the first round] would not vote for the centrist candidate, preferring to spoil their ballots or not turn up at all.
Should one country's leader try to influence a presidential election in another country? After all the talk about Putin's (never spoken) preference in the American election, we get America's ex-President putting out a video endorsement of a candidate in the French election? Is that right, and, more importantly, is that what the French people are looking for as they make their decision? Obama says the French election "matters to the entire world," but the extent to which France should lean into globalism seems to lie at the core of the decision to be made. I can't peer into the mind of the French, but I can wonder if Obama's intrusion won't backfire, adding to the very anxieties that Le Pen has emphasized, that France needs to remain French, the French version of Trump's America first.
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