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Title : "Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was."
link : "Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was."

"Marine Le Pen Is In A Much Deeper Hole Than Trump Ever Was."

Writes Nate Silver. 

Are we still hanging on the wisdom of the Nate Silver? The headline suggests he knows he has a credibility problem. (This time he really means it.) But let's look beyond the headline. There's a lot of stuff crunched over there — that's the confidence-building methodology — and here's how it ends:

There’s still some uncertainty about the outcome.... Although the polls haven’t systematically underestimated nationalist and right-wing parties, they also haven’t been all that accurate in pinning down their support, having come in both high and low in different elections. In cases since 2012 where the right-wing party polled at 25 percent or more, the polls missed the party’s actual support by an average of 3.6 percent of the vote. That translates to a true margin of error (or 95 percent confidence interval) of about plus or minus 9 percentage points. And because any vote that Le Pen gets is one that Macron won’t get, the margin of error for the gap between Le Pen and Macron is twice as large, or about 18 percentage points.

An 18-point margin of error is huge! But it still isn’t enough when you’re 26 points behind, as Le Pen is against Macron.... She could beat her polls by as much as Trump and Brexit combined and still lose to Macron by almost 20 points.

That's excitingly put and it sounds strong. As I said, confidence-building. But we're all skeptical now, aren't we? 

This was the final prediction, published on America's Election Day, at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight:

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